本书吸收国内外先进、权威的项目管理理论、方法体系，在内容上实现普遍性、先进

性、创造性、理论性和实践性的良好结合，重点针对项目实施各个阶段进行了深入剖析，

分析风险产生的原因，并且给出相应的风险识别、评估及控制手段。此外，本书也介绍了

目前新兴技术在建设项目风险管理中的应用情况，并回顾了五个风险管理案例，理论联系

实际，方便读者理解大型重点建设项目风险管理的重要性和相应的管控手段。

本书可作为工程管理高年级本科生或研究生的教材，也可作为从业者的参考用书。

前 言

从世界范围看，大型重点建设项目对国民经济和社会发展都起到了

至关重要的作用，同时，其项目管理难度随项目投资额增大、建设进度

加快、利益主体增多、规模扩大等因素逐步提升，这种情况下，大型重

点建设项目的管理过程中不可避免地会遇到多种不确定因素，这些因素

会因外界环境的变化而受到影响，从而影响工程施工，导致项目无法完

成。工程项目的建设是一项风险十分巨大的活动，如果管理不当，将会

造成工期延长、投资超标、质量达不到标准、施工中安全事故频繁发生

以及项目建设严重影响环境等问题。

改革开放以来，在经济飞速发展的大背景下，我国实施了一系列大

型重点建设项目，如南水北调、三峡工程、青藏铁路、京沪高铁、西气东输、

港珠澳大桥等。在引进国际上项目风险管理理论体系的基础上，通过几

十年的研究与实践，逐步积累了一些大型重点建设项目风险管理的经验。

大型重点建设项目的风险往往呈现复杂性和动态性，在项目实施过程中，

多种风险因素相互叠加交互作用，加大了风险管理的难度，基于单一风

险因素来制定风险预防、监测和应对措施很难取得良好的效果，必须从

组合风险管理的角度来构建大型重点建设项目的风险管理体系。因此，

在大型重点建设项目决策和实施过程中，坚持风险管理的全局观点和系



统思维，考量突发事件、影响群体、管理组织以及快速变化的经济、社会、

技术环境等要素条件，集成先进的理论、方法和技术手段，识别分析环

境的复杂性与不确定性并作出快速响应，成为大型重点建设项目风险管

理的迫切要求。

本书力求吸收国内外先进、权威的项目风险管理理论、方法体系，

整合了研究界和实践界的团队，通过理论和实践相结合的方式加以撰写。

本书首先梳理了大型重点建设项目风险管理的理论基础，对大型重点建

设项目风险的特点及管理的难点进行了分析。然后，对大型重点建设项

目风险管理进行了阶段划分，提出了大型重点建设项目的风险分解结构，

分别从决策、设计、施工、审计等方面分析了大型重点建设项目的风险。

在此基础上，构建了大型重点建设项目的风险链，阐述了新兴技术在大

型重点建设项目风险管理中的应用，并进行了案例分析。最后，提出了

政府投资大型重点建设项目关键风险点控制措施。

本书由施骞、陈荣毅主编，全书分11 章。其中第1 章由施骞、刘昱

昊、黄遥撰写；第2 章由陈荣毅、刘昱昊、徐志扬撰写；第3 章由陈荣

毅、伊力亚尔

. 

莫合塔尔撰写；第4 章由徐志扬、宋光昕、曾政撰写；

第5 章由徐志扬、马燕飞、李旭颖撰写；第6 章由伊力亚尔

. 

莫合塔尔、

谢建军撰写；第7 章由刘昱昊、王晓东撰写；第8 章由黄遥、宋光昕、

曾政撰写；第9 章由黄遥、吴琨撰写；第10 章案例Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ及Ⅳ由

黄遥撰写，案例V 由钱永政、施骞撰写；第11 章由黄遥、伊力亚尔

. 

莫合塔尔、刘昱昊、徐志扬、吴琨撰写。全书由施骞和陈荣毅统稿。

潘大鹏、陈清野、罗珍茹、姚康宁等为本书的编写提供了宝贵的意见。

本书在编写过程中得到了广州南沙新区重点建设项目推进办公室的大

力支持和帮助，在此表示衷心感谢。

本研究受国家自然科学基金（71771178 ）资助，希望能为大型重点

建设项目的建设者在进行项目风险管理时提供参考和借鉴，并有助于人

们了解、学习和研究大型重点建设项目风险管理，吸引更多的有识之士

投入其中，推进我国风险管理理论与实践的发展。本书也可作为高等院



校工程管理本科生和研究生的教学用书或参考书。

由于编者水平有限，书中难免会有不当之处，敬请读者批评指正。

编者 

2019 年8 月

目 录

第1章　绪论

·

······················································································1

1.1　本书编写的背景

·

·········································································2

1.2　本书编写的目的

·

·········································································3

1.3　本书的主要内容

·

·········································································4

第2章　大型重点建设项目风险管理的理论基础

·

······························7

2.1　风险管理的基本过程

·

·································································8

2.2　风险识别技术与方法

·

·······························································10

2.3　风险分析与评价方法

·

·······························································13

2.4 风险应对方法 ··········································································24

2.5 风险监控技术与方法 ·······························································27

第3章 大型重点建设项目风险概述···············································29

3.1 大型重点建设项目的复杂性及其风险的特点 ··························30

3.2 大型重点建设项目风险管理的难点 ·········································32

3.3 大型重点建设项目风险管理的阶段划分及风险分解结构 ·······34



第

4 

章 大型重点建设项目决策阶段的风险管理···························· 37 

4.1 决策阶段的风险因素识别························································39 

4.2 决策阶段的风险分析与评价 ····················································41 

4.3 决策阶段的风险应对与控制 ····················································42 

第

5 

章 大型重点建设项目设计阶段的风险管理···························· 47 

5.1 设计阶段的风险因素识别························································49 

5.2 设计阶段的风险分析与评价 ····················································51 

5.3 设计阶段的风险控制 ·······························································51 

第

6 

章 大型重点建设项目施工阶段的风险管理···························· 55 

6.1 施工阶段的风险因素识别························································56 

6.2 施工阶段的风险分析与控制 ····················································61 

6.3 施工阶段的风险监控方法························································64 

第

7 

章 大型重点建设项目审计风险··············································· 67 

7.1 内部审计与外部审计 ·······························································69 

7.2 审计风险识别 ··········································································70 

7.3 审计风险评价 ··········································································72 

7.4 审计风险控制对策···································································73 

第

8 

章 大型重点建设项目风险链分析与控制································ 75 

8.1 大型重点建设项目风险传导规律分析 ·····································76 

8.2 关键风险链识别·······································································85 

8.3 关键风险链的控制···································································92 

第

9 

章 新兴技术在大型重点建设项目风险管理中的应用············· 99 

9.1 基于无人机技术的建设过程风险监控 ···································100 



9.2 基于大数据技术的风险识别与预警·······································104 

9.3 基于建筑信息模型技术的全生命周期风险管理 ····················108 

第10 

章 典型案例········································································113 

10.1 案例Ⅰ：大型建设项目决策风险—以英法海底隧道为例 ···114 

10.2　案例Ⅱ：基于过程失效模式及后果分析法的风险管理— 

以某房屋建设项目为例···················································123 

10.3　案例Ⅲ：基于风险清单和层次分析法的风险评价— 

以某水厂项目为例·······························································128 

10.4　案例Ⅳ：风险传导演化分析—以上海“11·15”特别重大

火灾事故为例······································································132 

10.5 案例V：以南非新建核电项目风险链分析与控制为例 ·······137 

第11 

章 政府投资大型重点建设项目关键风险点控制················163 

11.1 项目审计风险控制 ·······························································164 

11.2 项目投资风险控制 ·······························································165 

11.3 项目设计风险控制 ·······························································167 

11.4 EPC 总承包模式风险控制····················································169 

附录····································································································171 

附录一项目审计风险控制清单 ···················································172 

附录二项目投资风险控制清单 ···················································178 

附录三项目设计风险控制清单 ···················································186 

附录四 EPC 总承包模式风险控制清单········································194 

参考文献··························································································199 

《大型重点建设项目风险管理》吸收国内外先进、权威的项目风险管理理论和方法体系，整合了研究界和实践界的团队，理论和实践相结合。

施骞 博士，现为同济大学经济与管理学院副院长，建设管理与房地产系教授，博士生导师，美国项目管理学会PMI-GAC理事，CPEC理事，上海市土木工程学会理事、管理专业委员会主任委员，上海市工程管理学会副理事长，国际设施管理学会（IFMA）上海区原主席。曾获得欧盟Erasmus Mundus学者基金资助，在美国出版学术专著1部，参与国际标准（ISO/TC279）WG3工作组工作、参与国家标准(GB/T50430-2007)编制。担任Renewable and Sustainable Energy Review、European Journal of Operational Research、International Journal of Project Management、Automation in Construction、ASCE-Journal of Urban Planning and Development等国际期刊的审稿人。主要教学和科研领域包括：工程管理、项目管理、风险管理等。