同类多产品并存扩散是一种很普遍的市场现象，如智能手机、平板电脑、新能源汽车等。因此，掌握多产品扩散规律不仅对于企业制定研发计划和营销策略十分重要，对于消费者选购产品也很有参考价值。对多产品扩散模型的研究有宏观和微观两种建模方法。基于宏观建模方法的多产品扩散模型已经有很多，但是这种模型存在一个很大的弊端，就是无法从微观层面解释宏观扩散结果，这严重限制了宏观模型的应用。另外，目前基于微观建模方法的多产品扩散模型还非常少，品牌竞争与代际替代并存的多产品扩散模型还未出现，而且仅有的少数模型均未经真实销售数据验证，只适用于理论分析，应用价值有限。基于上述情况，笔者用微观建模与仿真方法系统研究了3种情形下的多产品扩散问题。

产品扩散是创新扩散的一种。创新是指那些被采纳者视为新颖的观念、实践或事物。创新在社会系统中传播的过程被称为创新扩散。多产品扩散是指多个品牌或代际的同类产品并存的扩散，这种情形在耐用消费品市场很常见。 理解产品扩散，不仅对供方极其重要，而且对需方亦很有益。只有既掌握宏观规律，又明晰微观机理，才能全面理解产品扩散。构建模型是理解产品扩散的最佳途径。产品扩散模型有总体和个体之分。总体模型仅用于分析宏观规律，个体模型可同时用于分析宏观规律及其微观机理。总体模型的研究始于20 世纪 60 年代，已持续 60 余年，有关模型与理论已相当丰富与成熟。个体模型的研究始于 2000 年前后，仅有约 20 年的历史，加之来自产品、消费者和社会环境的众多因素对采纳行为异常复杂的影响，因而有关模型与理论还相当匮乏和稚嫩，基于 Agent 的多产品扩散模型与理论的研究尤其如此。正是在这种背景下，笔者带领课题组开展了一系列基于 Agent 的多产品扩散仿真研究。望本书能够对读者理解多产品扩散有所启迪。 先后参与研究工作的有刘梦莉、王攀和王国庆三位硕士，感谢他们做出的贡献。本书受西北工业大学精品学术著作培育项目资助出版，对此深表谢意。 书中的一些观点和见解，可能存在不准确、甚至不妥当之处，敬请读者批评指正。

第1章 绪论··········································································································1 1.1 研究背景及意义······················································································1 1.2 研究进展·································································································3 1.2.1 多产品扩散模型··········································································4 1.2.2 线上口碑对扩散过程的影响·······················································6 1.2.3 社交网络对扩散过程的影响·······················································8 1.2.4 研究进展述评··············································································9 1.3 研究内容·······························································································10 1.3.1 消费者决策分析········································································10 1.3.2 多代产品扩散仿真····································································11 1.3.3 多品牌产品扩散仿真································································12 1.3.4 多品牌多代产品扩散仿真·························································12 1.4 研究思路及方法····················································································12 1.4.1 消费者决策分析········································································12 1.4.2 多代产品扩散仿真····································································13 1.4.3 多品牌产品扩散仿真································································13 1.4.4 多品牌多代产品扩散仿真·························································14 1.5 主要创新·······························································································14 1.6 本章小结·······························································································15 第2 章 相关理论与技术·····················································································16 2.1 效用理论·······························································································16 2.1.1 概述···························································································16 2.1.2 效用函数的由来········································································16 2.1.3 消费者偏好················································································17 2.1.4 效用函数的类型········································································18 2.1.5 边际效用····················································································19 2.1.6 期望效用····················································································20 2.1.7 间接效用····················································································21 2.1.8 预算约束····················································································21 2.2 模糊集理论····························································································22 2.2.1 概述···························································································22 2.2.2 概念定义····················································································23 2.2.3 模糊逻辑····················································································25 2.3 网络科学·······························································································28 2.3.1 概述···························································································28 2.3.2 网络属性····················································································29 2.3.3 网络模型····················································································32 2.4 ABMS理论与技术················································································35 2.4.1 什么是Agent ·············································································35 2.4.2 基于Agent的模型····································································36 2.4.3 Repast Symphony建模仿真平台···············································38 2.4.4 Mesa建模仿真框架···································································41 2.5 本章小结·······························································································44 第3章 消费者决策分析·····················································································46 3.1 购买决策分析························································································46 3.1.1 消费者属性················································································46 3.1.2 产品属性····················································································49 3.1.3 社会环境····················································································53 3.2 评论决策分析························································································55 3.3 本章小结·······························································································55 第4章 多代产品扩散仿真·················································································57 4.1 多代产品扩散模型设计········································································57 4.1.1 多代产品子模型········································································57 4.1.2 消费者Agent子模型·································································58 4.1.3 社交网络子模型········································································67 4.1.4 总体框架····················································································67 4.2 多代产品扩散仿真实验········································································68 4.2.1 模型验证····················································································68 4.2.2 敏感性分析················································································74 4.2.3 购买者动力学分析····································································86 4.2.4 延伸讨论····················································································88 4.3 本章小结·······························································································88 第5章 多品牌产品扩散仿真·············································································90 5.1 多品牌产品扩散模型设计····································································90 5.1.1 多品牌产品子模型····································································90 5.1.2 消费者Agent子模型·································································91 5.1.3 社交网络子模型········································································96 5.1.4 总体框架····················································································97 5.2 多品牌产品扩散仿真实验····································································97 5.2.1 模型验证····················································································98 5.2.2 敏感性分析··············································································101 5.2.3 购买者动力学分析··································································117 5.2.4 延伸讨论··················································································122 5.3 本章小结·····························································································123 第6章 多品牌多代产品扩散仿真···································································125 6.1 多品牌多代产品扩散模型设计···························································125 6.1.1 多品牌多代产品子模型··························································125 6.1.2 消费者Agent子模型·······························································126 6.1.3 社交网络子模型······································································131 6.1.4 总体框架··················································································132 6.2 多品牌多代产品扩散仿真实验···························································136 6.2.1 模型验证··················································································136 6.2.2 敏感性分析··············································································141 6.2.3 购买者动力学分析··································································146 6.2.4 延伸讨论··················································································150 6.3 本章小结·····························································································151 第7章 总结与展望··························································································153 7.1 总结·····································································································153 7.2 展望·····································································································155 参考文献··············································································································157